The credit boom in the corporate segment will be a promising source of additional profits for the sector; however, it is important to bear in mind the intensifying interbank competition in this segment. At the same time, we see specific sources of growth in demand for corporate credit in 2026, including investment needs related to industrial decarbonization and ESG requirements. At the same time, we expect growth in demand for alternative forms of financing, such as leasing and factoring.
Factors which will affect the results of the Group
The activity of Bank Pekao S.A. and the Group’s companies is in majority conducted on the Polish territory, hence the Group’s performance will be mainly affected by economic situation in the country and international events that have influence on domestic economy.
Average annual CPI inflation in 2025 stood at 3.6% y/y, but the trajectory of monthly price readings was clearly disinflationary – last year ended with a monthly reading of 2.4% y/y, below the inflation target. Disinflation will continue in 2026; we forecast that the average price growth this year will be 1.9% y/y. Factors contributing to further disinflation will include the stabilization of commodity prices (including energy) on global markets, as well as the so-called import of disinflation from China.
The growth rate of service prices will remain higher than inflation in the goods segment, but given the closing demand gap and slowing wage growth, we do not see any significant inflationary risks building up here.
Monetary policy is a key macroeconomic factor affecting the financial performance of the banking sector. In 2025, RPP cut interest rates by 175 basis points, the deepest cut in over a decade. As a result, last year ended with the policy rate of 4.00%. Despite a significant reduction in the reference rate and benchmark market rates, the banking sector’s aggregate profits in 2025 amounted to PLN 48,9 billion, breaking the record set in 2024 (PLN 40.2 billion) which had been achieved, it is worth noting, under a reference rate of 5.75%. Despite the decline in interest rates, banks in Poland increased their interest income by PLN 3 billion with virtually unchanged interest costs, which on the one hand results from a significant increase in the volume of loans granted, and on the other hand reflects adjustments in deposit margins. It is also worth noting that the factor that weighed most heavily on the profit and loss account in 2025 compared to 2024 was the item “costs and depreciation,” whose increase resulted from dynamic growth in salaries. In 2026, we expect the cycle of monetary policy adjustments to come to an end and the reference rate to reach its target level of 3.25% or only slightly lower. Given the projected rebound in the credit market, especially in the residential and corporate segments, we believe that further rate cuts of 75 bp will not have a significant impact on the sector’s financial results, especially in view of the observed adjustments to deposit margins in an environment of inelastic deposit supply.
Among the local factors affecting banks’ results, particular attention should be paid to the issue of the CIT rate increase for the banking sector. According to the estimates of the Ministry of Finance, in 2026 banks will pay an additional PLN 6 billion in corporate income tax. The issue of tax incidence, i.e. the distribution of actual tax burdens between taxpayers (banks) and their customers, remains unclear. Only slight declines in deposit margins (understood as the difference between customer deposit interest rates and the WIBOR rate) may indicate attempts to increase the share of customers in the costs associated with fiscal changes. At the same time, increases in banks’ commission income indicate that the sector is actively seeking additional sources of profit in view of the expected increase in tax burdens.
On 12 February 2026, the CJEU issued a judgment in Case C 471/24 concerning interest rate clauses based on WIBOR index. The CJEU confirmed that the methodology for determining WIBOR is outside the scope of judicial review and that the variable interest rate clause itself can only be assessed in terms of transparency. Compliance with the information obligations under Directive 2014/17 is, in principle, the fulfilment of that requirement. The CJEU also pointed out that the use of a benchmark in accordance with the BMR Regulation does not in itself lead to an imbalance to the detriment of the consumer. This decision should be assessed as beneficial for the banking sector.
We consider the risk to the banking sector’s performance associated with global factors to be moderate. In particular, the possible end of kinetic actions in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will only have a limited impact on the sector’s operations. The impact of peace on the decline in risk premiums will be limited due to the long-lasting, deep fiscal deficits in Poland; we also see no potential for a significant deterioration in the balance of payments. In core markets, however, the key factor of uncertainty will be the shape of Fed policy after Chairman J. Powell steps down, as well as the long-term impact of this policy on inflationary pressure in the US.